McNair Monthly Economic outlook

Northwood University's McNair Center prepares a monthly economic outlook report which analyzes key data and makes predictions about the United States economic landscape. 


April 2018 Outlook

As of the end of April, the U.S. economy has one-third of 2018 economic performance in the rear view mirror. The U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2018 according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in late April. The BEA 2018 Q1 GDP report was higher than expected as most economists saw the economy growing at roughly 2 percent for the first three months of this year. We have mixed feelings about the results as they represent a decline relative to GDP growth the previous three quarters of 2017 (Q2 = 3.1 percent, Q3 = 3.2 percent, Q4 = 2.9 percent).

March 2018 outlook

March marks the end of the first quarter of 2018 and the initial quarter of President Donald Trump's first full year in office. The impact of the Trump Tax Cuts is now being felt throughout the U.S. economy with the hope from many in Washington that lower taxes will have a substantial impact on U.S. GDP in 2018. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release Q1 GDP at the end of April with the most recent estimate by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta calling for GDP growth of 2.7 percent. This would be an improvement over the average for the last 10 years but less than what the White House has been hoping for.


February 2018 Outlook

At the end of February, the U.S. and world economies find themselves producing mixed results. The U.S. stock market closed at record levels and much momentum seems to be gathering steam for growth and prosperity if only President Trump and the Democrats can work together. 


January 2018 Outlook

At the end of 2017 the United States economy was in a surprisingly strong position relative to what most economists had predicted at the beginning of the year. In fact, the U.S. and global economies were performing unexpectedly well largely due to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth as well as better than expected Euro Area growth. However, the year did not end without concern over issues ranging from government debt both here and abroad and conflicts ranging from North Korea to the Middle East.